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WHAT IS THE POINT ? — 14 Comments

  1. This is getting very interesting. I watch the USD and wait.

    Martin Armstrong has been pounding the table saying foreign money will move into the USD (and US Stock Market) as there are no other alternative competing currencies.
    He thinks the USD will eventually go up. Everything I see does not agree with his assessment.
    Watching and waiting to see what happens as his computer is calling the shots.

    • Is there any half-way objective evidence that Armstrong or his computer are worth following? This question is not rhetorical. I simply do not know. Has anyone tried to invest money according to his recommendations for an extended period (many years) and posted results? Or at least mock-invested pretend money, taking into account slippage/fees? Or even tried investing pretend money retrospectively for an extended period?

      Not that this sort of evidence is foolproof. Luck vs skill can be hard to distinguish. One can have an extraordinary run of good luck. Also, I think there is the problem with potential ambiguity of oracles–“Oh, I didn’t mean to invest in that–you misinterpreted me.”

      There is the potential error on the side of too much skepticism. Sometimes a person or method works but only if you filter. You use one or more methodologies to filter out certain sorts of calls or signals and can turn a bad system into a good system.

      Armstrong has significant reputation. Is there rigourous evidence (not anecdotal of this or that great call ignoring others that were atrocious or meaningless)? Again, not a rhetorical question.

      My own unbacked suspicion is Armstrong and his computer are wastes of time and money that get some things right, but I have zero evidence.

      • I agree Karl.

        we did a poll at Goldtent a while back and no one said they have done well “trying” to trade Armstrong.

        Trying is a key word as most agree his “calls” are often ambiguous.

        • I guess he deserves sympathy and even perhaps respect for his past imprisonment combined with his undeniable fund of knowledge and intelligence, but…

          I don’t know. I literally find even restaurant fortune cookies useful, whether the ambiguous ones or the straightforward bossy-sounding ones. I always try to pay attention to them in case they jog me into a useful perspective, new and different for me. (->Am I missing something?) I suspect that looking at even the horoscopes for the wrong and date and time could serve a similar useful purpose.

          Perhaps Mr Armstrong and his software actually are right much of the time and are more than just quasi-random fortunetellers. I don’t have an opinion, but I’m not paying for a subscription.

  2. Thanks guys. I read Armstrong all the time but was wondering if I am wasting my time as he claims his computer is more accurate than any trading system.

    I have often thought if this was the case every professional trader would be paying for using his computer.

    Overall he has been predicting the stock market will go to 40-50K. He has mentioned gold will be back around 2023 or thereafter and that aligns with Spock so that is interesting.
    He says China will be the new global finance center by 2032.
    Overall I have been watching the dollar. He thinks it will rise.
    Who knows but I see no evidence based on cycles that this will be the case.

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